← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 1, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Ortiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 50% | 43% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.50 | value: +17% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 22% | 24% | 4.53 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Girona −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 51% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 49% | 2.18 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Reinier · Girona |
| 24' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Girona |
| 35' | 🟨 | Iván Martín · Girona |
| 53' | ⚽ | Arnau Martínez · Girona |
| 71' | 🟨 | Valentín Castellanos · Girona |
| 73' | ⚽ | Martin Braithwaite · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 83' | 🟨 | Denis Suárez · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 83' | 🟥 | Sergi Gómez · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 87' | 🟨 | Fernando Calero · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.59 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadi Municipal de Montilivi |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Arnau Martínez · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 639.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1606.37 | 1570.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.86 | -8.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.62 |
| league points | 31.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 13.86 | 13.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -0.18 |
| solidity v1 | -0.63 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.44 | 29.19 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.28 |