← Primera Division 2022-23 · Mon, Feb 13, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muñiz
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 45% | 39% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 24% | 29% | 4.14 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol +0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona +0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 64% | 60% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 40% | 2.75 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand