← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 22, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: José Sánchez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 54% | 59% | 1.79 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.53 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 18% | 20% | 5.49 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca −0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Valencia CF −0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 54% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 46% | 2.32 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Battaglia · Mallorca |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Edinson Cavani · Valencia CF |
| 60' | 🟨 | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 65' | 🟨 | Gabriel Paulista · Valencia CF |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 70' | 🟨 | Yunus Musah · Valencia CF |
| 83' | ⚽ | Kang-in Lee · Mallorca |
| 86' | 🟨 | Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hugo Guillamón · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| 🟨 |
| Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 143.00 | 235.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1700.74 | 1593.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.23 | -3.14 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| league points | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 3.98 | 2.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.87 | 26.69 |
| state index | 0.78 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |