← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Oct 16, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 40% | 28% | 2.46 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 44% | 3.18 | value: +41% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 29% | 27% | 3.32 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 62% | 1.59 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Abanca-Balaídos |
| 77' | 🟨 | Carles Pérez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 81' | 🟨 | Óscar Mingueza · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ander Barrenetxea · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Agustín Marchesín · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟥 | Gonçalo Paciência · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robert Navarro · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1080.00 | 1415.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1631.29 | 1740.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.16 | 43.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| league points | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 64.00 |
| rest days | 6.71 | 2.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.74 | 25.83 |
| state index | 0.24 | 1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |