← Primera Division 2021-22 · Thu, May 12, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 51% | 49% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.75 | value: +16% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 23% | 20% | 4.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Villarreal CF +0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 52% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand