← Primera Division 2021-22 · Thu, May 12, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martínez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 59% | 60% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.79 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 15% | 16% | 6.63 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cadiz −1 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −1 | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 49% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 51% | 2.20 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | José Mari · Cadiz |
| 19' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Adnan Januzaj · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 60' | 🟨 | Rafinha Alcântara · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 63' | 🟨 | David Silva · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 66' | 🟨 | Igor Zubeldia · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 82' | 🟨 | Rubén Alcaraz · Cadiz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Portu · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Portu · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 12 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Reale Arena |
| coach days |
| 1258.00 |
| 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1675.77 | 1567.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.19 | 24.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| league points | 56.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 5.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.80 | — |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |