← Primera Division 2021-22 · Mon, Feb 14, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 37% | 42% | 2.74 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 31% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Mallorca +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 61% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 39% | 2.66 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Manolo Reina · Mallorca |
| 12' | 🟨 | Brian Oliván · Mallorca |
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Salva Sevilla · Mallorca |
| 30' | ⚽ | Ángel Rodríguez · Mallorca |
| 52' | 🟨 | Oier Zarraga · Athletic Club |
| 57' | 🟨 | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
| 59' | ⚽ | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 61' | ⚽ | Álex Berenguer · Athletic Club |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ángel Rodríguez · Mallorca |
| 79' | 🟨 | Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club |
| 80' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 22 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Visit Mallorca Estadi |
| 🟨 |
| Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 88' | 🟨 | Takefusa Kubo · Mallorca |
| 88' | ⚽ (og) | Unai Simón · Mallorca |
| 89' | 🟨 | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Álex Berenguer · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 562.00 | 409.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1557.12 | 1670.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.02 | 26.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.80 |
| league points | 23.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 9.20 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.54 | 24.47 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |