← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 13, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrián Cordero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 37% | 29% | 2.64 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 32% | 40% | 3.13 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés +0 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Valencia CF +0 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 55% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 45% | 2.43 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Mamadou Loum · Deportivo Alavés |
| 37' | 🟨 | Nahuel Tenaglia · Deportivo Alavés |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tomás Pina · Deportivo Alavés |
| 61' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Escalante · Deportivo Alavés |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Gonçalo Guedes · Valencia CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Mouctar Diakhaby · Valencia CF |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Joselu · Deportivo Alavés |
| 84' | 🟨 | Toni Lato · Valencia CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Bryan Gil · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Víctor Laguardia · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| 5.00 |
| coach days | 74.00 | 227.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1556.98 | 1706.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.45 | -20.03 |
| eye test v1 | -1.03 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.74 |
| league points | 17.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.00 | 35.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.55 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.23 | -1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.23 | 23.05 |
| state index | -0.82 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.68 | -1.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |