← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sat, Jan 8, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 71% | 76% | 1.36 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 18% | 13% | 5.46 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 10% | 11% | 9.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF −1.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Real Madrid CF −1.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 40% | 2.55 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
| 26' | 🟨 | Éder Militão · Real Madrid CF |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 51' | 🟨 | Cristiano Piccini · Valencia CF |
| 52' | ⚽ | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 58' | 🟨 | Yunus Musah · Valencia CF |
| 61' | ⚽ | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ferland Mendy · Real Madrid CF |
| 76' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Guedes · Valencia CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Denis Cheryshev · Valencia CF |
| 88' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 24 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| ⚽ |
| Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.60 |
| coach days | 221.00 | 191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.96 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1973.39 | 1713.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.80 | 6.86 |
| eye test v1 | 1.18 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 46.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.00 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 6.29 | 8.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.30 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.12 | -1.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 29.14 | 25.58 |
| state index | 1.48 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.33 | -1.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |