← Primera Division 2021-22 · Mon, Jan 3, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Ortiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 39% | 36% | 2.50 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 36% | 2.99 | value: +9% |
| CA Osasuna win | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Athletic Club +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 60% | 1.49 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 40% | 2.81 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Kike García · CA Osasuna |
| 16' | ⚽ | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 25' | ⚽ | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 66' | 🟨 | José Ángel · CA Osasuna |
| 66' | 🟨 | Yeray Álvarez · Athletic Club |
| 68' | ⚽ | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 77' | 🟨 | Lucas Torró · CA Osasuna |
| 78' | 🟨 | Sergio Herrera · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · CA Osasuna |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| 🟥 |
| Chimy Ávila · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iñigo Martínez · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1312.00 | 367.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1598.23 | 1639.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.12 | -3.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.50 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| league points | 22.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 15.10 | 11.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.47 | 25.18 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |