← Primera Division 2021-22 · Fri, Dec 31, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: José Sánchez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 53% | 56% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.69 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 21% | 19% | 4.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −0.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 55% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 45% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Thierry Correia · Valencia CF |
| 19' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Guedes · Valencia CF |
| 30' | 🟨 | Nicolás Melamed · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 51' | ⚽ | Omar Alderete · Valencia CF |
| 63' | 🟨 | Daniel Wass · Valencia CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Rubén Iranzo · Valencia CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Óscar Gil · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 82' | 🟨 | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 82' | 🟥 | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 83' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Raúl de Tomás · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 88' | ⚽ | Javi Puado · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jasper Cillessen · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adrià Pedrosa · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 183.00 | 761.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1726.92 | 1656.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.69 | -6.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | — |
| league points | 28.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 10.80 | 13.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.52 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.00 | 26.04 |
| state index | 0.85 | -0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |