← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sat, Nov 27, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 47% | 49% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.31 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 24% | 24% | 4.09 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Valencia CF −0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 58% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 42% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Esteban Saveljich · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 27' | 🟨 | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Valencia CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mouctar Diakhaby · Valencia CF |
| 54' | 🟨 | Santi Comesaña · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 55' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Isi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 62' | 🟨 | Dimitri Foulquier · Valencia CF |
| 64' | ⚽ | Isi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| 68' | 🟨 | Daniel Wass · Valencia CF |
| 73' | 🟨 | Alejandro Catena · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 75' | 🟨 | Óscar Valentín · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 149.00 | 483.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1643.94 | 1627.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.49 | 15.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 18.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.14 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.55 | 26.61 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |