← Primera Division 2021-22 · Fri, Aug 27, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 34% | 37% | 2.90 | value: +8% |
| Mallorca win | 34% | 35% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 28% | 3.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Mallorca +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 65% | 61% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 39% | 2.75 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand