← Primera Division 2021-22 · Fri, Aug 13, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesús Gil
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 40% | 34% | 2.47 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.04 | value: +5% |
| Getafe CF win | 28% | 32% | 3.48 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Valencia CF −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 63% | 1.48 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 37% | 2.84 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟥 | Hugo Guillamón · Valencia CF |
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 13' | 🟨 | Daniel Wass · Valencia CF |
| 31' | 🟨 | Mathías Olivera · Getafe CF |
| 38' | 🟨 | Erick Cabaco · Getafe CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 57' | 🟨 | Maximiliano Gómez · Valencia CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Erick Cabaco · Getafe CF |
| 76' | 🟥 | Erick Cabaco · Getafe CF |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 22 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 24 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| 🟨 |
| Omar Alderete · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jason · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 43.00 | 104.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1613.86 | 1578.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.48 | -14.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 62.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | -1.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.59 | 24.93 |
| state index | 0.41 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -1.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |