← Primera Division 2020-21 · Sun, May 9, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: David Medié
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 59% | 52% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.27 | value: +13% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 18% | 22% | 5.52 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF −0.75 | 54% | 1.81 |
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.75 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 51% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 49% | 2.42 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Mario Gaspar · Villarreal CF |
| -5' | 🟥 | Gerónimo Rulli · Villarreal CF |
| 5' | 🟨 | Pervis Estupiñán · Villarreal CF |
| 19' | ⚽ | Santi Mina · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 25' | ⚽ | Moi Gómez · Villarreal CF |
| 33' | 🟨 | Sergio Asenjo · Villarreal CF |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Santi Mina · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 44' | 🟨 | Néstor Araujo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Brais Méndez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| 57' |
| ⚽ |
| Augusto Solari · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 79' | 🟨 | Facundo Ferreyra · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Facundo Ferreyra · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 88' | 🟥 | Facundo Ferreyra · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 89' | 🟨 | Yéremy Pino · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 312.00 | 494.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1827.48 | 1671.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.16 | 8.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 47.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.61 |
| league points | 52.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 8.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.55 | 26.66 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.09 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |