← Primera Division 2020-21 · Sat, Mar 6, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Getafe CF win | 36% | 32% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 34% | 35% | 2.87 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Getafe CF +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Valladolid +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 70% | 63% | 1.40 | fair |
| Over | 30% | 37% | 3.20 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla |