← Primera Division 2020-21 · Sun, Jan 31, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Jesús Gil
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 58% | 69% | 1.71 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | 3.50 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 14% | 11% | 7.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cadiz +1 | 59% | 1.65 |
| Club Atlético de Madrid +1 | 41% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 55% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 45% | 2.71 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 35' | ⚽ | Álvaro Negredo · Cadiz |
| 38' | 🟨 | Lucas Torreira · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jairo Izquierdo · Cadiz |
| 41' | 🟨 | João Félix · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 44' | ⚽ | Saúl Ñíguez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Luis Suárez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 71' | ⚽ | Álvaro Negredo · Cadiz |
| 73' | 🟨 | Šime Vrsaljko · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 76' | 🟨 | Koke · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cadiz | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón de Carranza |
| 85' | 🟨 | Geoffrey Kondogbia · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 88' | ⚽ | Koke · Club Atlético de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1766.00 | 3349.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1537.93 | 1872.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.18 | 25.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.77 |
| league points | 24.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 30.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 2.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.62 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.50 |
| state index | 0.02 | 1.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.06 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |