← Primera Division 2020-21 · Fri, Oct 23, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: César Soto
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Valencia CF win | 42% | 38% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 28% | 31% | 3.52 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Elche CF +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Valencia CF +0.25 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 60% | 60% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 40% | 2.47 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 3 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero |