← Primera Division 2019-20 · Tue, Jun 16, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martínez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 81% | 85% | 1.21 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 14% | 11% | 7.00 | fair |
| Leganes win | 6% | 4% | 17.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leganes −1.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| FC Barcelona −1.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 59% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 41% | 2.50 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Unai Bustinza · Leganes |
| 42' | ⚽ | Ansu Fati · FC Barcelona |
| 68' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 82' | 🟨 | Chidozie Awaziem · Leganes |
| 83' | 🟨 | Samuel Umtiti · FC Barcelona |
| 84' | 🟨 | Riqui Puig · FC Barcelona |
| 84' | 🟨 | Clément Lenglet · FC Barcelona |
| 89' | 🟨 | Junior Firpo · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ivan Rakitić · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟥 | — · Leganes |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 1111.00 |
| 228.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1882.73 | 1520.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.48 | -3.56 |
| eye test v1 | 1.18 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 61.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.93 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.28 | — |
| state index | 1.60 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.65 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |