← Primera Division 2019-20 · Fri, Jun 12, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: David Medié
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 39% | 43% | 2.51 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 33% | 29% | 2.94 | fair |
| Granada win | 28% | 27% | 3.49 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Getafe CF +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 59% | 1.42 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 41% | 3.11 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Víctor Díaz · Granada |
| 16' | 🟨 | Carlos Fernández · Granada |
| 20' | ⚽ | David Timor · Getafe CF |
| 23' | 🟨 | Xabier Etxeita · Getafe CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Roberto Soldado · Granada |
| 49' | 🟨 | Maxime Gonalons · Granada |
| 61' | 🟨 | Oghenekaro Etebo · Getafe CF |
| 68' | 🟨 | Yangel Herrera · Granada |
| 70' | ⚽ | Carlos Fernández · Granada |
| 79' | ⚽ | Carlos Fernández · Granada |
| 89' | 🟨 | Hugo Duro · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Germán Sánchez · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 742.00 |
| 1380.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1605.17 | 1720.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.51 | -10.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 38.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 61.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | -2.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.21 |
| state index | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | -1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |