← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sat, Mar 7, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 52% | 56% | 1.86 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 21% | 20% | 4.61 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eibar −0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Mallorca −0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 51% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 49% | 2.11 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 40' | 🟨 | Paulo Oliveira · Eibar |
| 42' | ⚽ | Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca |
| 66' | 🟨 | Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca |
| 72' | 🟨 | José Ángel · Eibar |
| 78' | ⚽ | Takefusa Kubo · Mallorca |
| 86' | 🟨 | Fabián Orellana · Eibar |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yoel Rodríguez · Eibar |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charles Días · Eibar |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa |
| Manolo Reina · Mallorca |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pedro Bigas · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1711.00 | 1071.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1589.62 | 1495.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.10 | -7.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 27.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.43 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 23.59 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |