← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sun, Jan 19, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: Mario Melero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 41% | 53% | 2.37 | value: +25% |
| Mallorca win | 32% | 24% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Valencia CF +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 50% | 1.86 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 50% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 7' | ⚽ | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 12' | 🟨 | Francis Coquelin · Valencia CF |
| 22' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · Mallorca |
| 38' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 41' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · Mallorca |
| 51' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 51' | 🟥 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Salva Sevilla · Mallorca |
| 60' | 🟨 | Manolo Reina · Mallorca |
| 79' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Iberostar Estadi |
| ⚽ |
| Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca |
| 81' | 🟨 | Takefusa Kubo · Mallorca |
| 82' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres · Valencia CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ferran Torres · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1023.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1485.72 | 1723.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.93 | 20.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| league points | 15.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 22.76 | 25.73 |
| state index | -0.69 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |