← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sat, Jan 18, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesús Gil
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 55% | 52% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | fair |
| Eibar win | 19% | 20% | 5.25 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Eibar +0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Club Atlético de Madrid +0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 59% | 56% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 44% | 2.36 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa |