← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 8, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 44% | 44% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.48 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 28% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| CA Osasuna +0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 46% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 54% | 1.97 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Jules Koundé · Sevilla FC |
| 11' | ⚽ | Munir El Haddadi · Sevilla FC |
| 16' | 🟨 | Raúl Navas · CA Osasuna |
| 44' | 🟨 | Sergio Reguilón · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Chimy Ávila · CA Osasuna |
| 46' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Oier · CA Osasuna |
| 61' | 🟨 | Oier · CA Osasuna |
| 61' | 🟥 | Oier · CA Osasuna |
| 77' | 🟨 | Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna |
| 89' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 22 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| 🟨 |
| Jesús Navas · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 555.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1639.54 | 1745.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.24 | 32.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 22.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 7.21 | 7.38 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | 1.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 27.15 |
| state index | 0.59 | 1.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 1.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |