← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sun, Nov 24, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: José Sánchez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 34% | 39% | 2.82 | value: +10% |
| Athletic Club win | 34% | 25% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 36% | 3.02 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Athletic Club +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 58% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 42% | 2.70 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · CA Osasuna |
| 21' | ⚽ | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 32' | 🟨 | Darko Brašanac · CA Osasuna |
| 48' | 🟨 | Lillo Castellano · CA Osasuna |
| 52' | 🟨 | Iñigo Cordoba · Athletic Club |
| 57' | 🟨 | Rubén García · CA Osasuna |
| 58' | 🟨 | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 61' | 🟨 | Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club |
| 76' | ⚽ | Chimy Ávila · CA Osasuna |
| 79' | ⚽ | Kenan Kodro · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 541.00 | 358.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1683.22 | 1718.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.42 | 12.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.81 |
| league points | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 13.81 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.81 | 27.29 |
| state index | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |