← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sun, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: José Munuera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 54% | 52% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.54 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 18% | 21% | 5.25 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés −0.75 | 53% | 1.82 |
| CA Osasuna −0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 61% | 1.71 | value: +4% |
| Over | 43% | 39% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Lisandro Magallán · Deportivo Alavés |
| 20' | ⚽ | Rubén García · CA Osasuna |
| 26' | ⚽ | Chimy Ávila · CA Osasuna |
| 27' | ⚽ | Víctor Laguardia · Deportivo Alavés |
| 41' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · CA Osasuna |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Pérez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Juan Villar · CA Osasuna |
| 69' | 🟨 | Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna |
| 84' | 🟨 | Marc Cardona · CA Osasuna |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| 84' |
| 🟨 |
| Víctor Laguardia · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pervis Estupiñán · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 520.00 | 186.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1668.61 | 1642.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.23 | 10.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| league points | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 4.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.84 | 26.46 |
| state index | 0.66 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |