← Primera Division 2019-20 · Fri, Oct 18, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granada win | 39% | 44% | 2.53 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.01 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 29% | 29% | 3.31 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Granada −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 58% | 1.48 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 42% | 2.80 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Pervis Estupiñán · CA Osasuna |
| 24' | 🟨 | Brandon · CA Osasuna |
| 27' | 🟨 | Carlos Fernández · Granada |
| 38' | ⚽ | Domingos Duarte · Granada |
| 40' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · CA Osasuna |
| 54' | 🟨 | Oier · CA Osasuna |
| 65' | 🟨 | Álex Martínez · Granada |
| 78' | 🟨 | Aridane Hernández · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| 🟨 |
| Jon Moncayola · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟥 | Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 504.00 | 504.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1613.93 | 1614.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.31 | 1.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 66.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| league points | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 13.21 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | 0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |