← Primera Division 2019-20 · Thu, Sep 26, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 43% | 35% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Eibar win | 28% | 35% | 3.57 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC +0.25 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Eibar +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 56% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 44% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Lucas Ocampos · Sevilla FC |
| 19' | 🟨 | Anaitz Arbilla · Eibar |
| 33' | ⚽ | Óliver Torres · Sevilla FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Sergio Escudero · Sevilla FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Edu Expósito · Eibar |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabián Orellana · Eibar |
| 70' | 🟨 | Joan Jordán · Sevilla FC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Pedro León · Eibar |
| 82' | ⚽ | José Ángel · Eibar |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa |
| 🟨 |
| Paulo Oliveira · Eibar |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1548.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1578.40 | 1693.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.51 | 12.28 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| league points | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 5.13 | 3.92 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | 1.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 27.92 |
| state index | -0.28 | 0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | 0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |