← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 54% | 45% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 3.99 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 22% | 31% | 4.45 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Enes Ünal · Valladolid |
| 69' | 🟨 | Álex Moreno · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 73' | ⚽ | Álvaro Medrán · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 76' | 🟨 | José Pozo · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 77' | 🟨 | Kiko Olivas · Valladolid |
| 80' | ⚽ | Sergi Guardiola · Valladolid |
| 86' | 🟨 | Fernando Calero · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Vallecas |
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 72.00 | 406.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1496.07 | 1524.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.91 | 25.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| league points | 31.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.12 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |