← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 51% | 49% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.96 | fair |
| Huesca win | 24% | 30% | 3.99 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Daniel Wass · Valencia CF |
| 16' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Valencia CF |
| 20' | ⚽ | Santi Mina · Valencia CF |
| 29' | 🟨 | Francis Coquelin · Valencia CF |
| 30' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · Huesca |
| 32' | ⚽ | Santi Mina · Valencia CF |
| 40' | ⚽ (og) | Xabier Etxeita · Valencia CF |
| 51' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Valencia CF |
| 66' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Melero · Huesca |
| 85' | 🟨 | Cristian Rivera · Huesca |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Álex Gallar · Huesca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 5 |
| 24 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | El Alcoraz |
| coach days | 216.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1542.15 | 1711.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.60 | -18.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.60 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| league points | 30.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.49 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.54 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.13 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |