← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 65% | 64% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.48 | fair |
| Eibar win | 13% | 15% | 7.25 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 58' | 🟨 | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 60' | 🟨 | Facundo Roncaglia · Valencia CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | José Ángel · Eibar |
| 87' | 🟨 | Charles Días · Eibar |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergio Álvarez · Eibar |
| 90' | ⚽ | Charles Días · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| coach days |
| 12.00 |
| 1397.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1739.99 | 1576.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.55 | -17.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.60 |
| league points | 52.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.43 | — |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |