← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 44% | 38% | 2.23 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 28% | 32% | 3.45 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.48 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Andrés Guardado · Real Betis Balompié |
| 45' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Guedes · Valencia CF |
| 49' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Guedes · Valencia CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Junior Firpo · Real Betis Balompié |
| 58' | 🟨 | Zouhair Feddal · Real Betis Balompié |
| 62' | 🟨 | Rodrigo · Valencia CF |
| 73' | 🟨 | Giovani Lo Celso · Real Betis Balompié |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Giovani Lo Celso · Real Betis Balompié |
| 82' | 🟨 | Rodrigo · Valencia CF |
| 82' | 🟥 | Rodrigo · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 720.00 | 5.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1671.78 | 1816.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.22 | 16.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.79 |
| league points | 43.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.43 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.76 | 26.00 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.13 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |