← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD win | 55% | 50% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.23 | fair |
| Huesca win | 22% | 27% | 4.44 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Roger Martí · Levante UD |
| 36' | 🟨 | Chema · Levante UD |
| 40' | 🟨 | Cucho Hernández · Huesca |
| 58' | 🟨 | Roger Martí · Levante UD |
| 63' | ⚽ | Enric Gallego · Huesca |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 69' | ⚽ | Chimy Ávila · Huesca |
| 76' | 🟨 | Adrián Diéguez · Huesca |
| 83' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · Huesca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juanpi Añor · Huesca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 22 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Huesca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Ciutat de València |
| coach days | 402.00 | 188.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1620.77 | 1553.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.98 | -4.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 32.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 65.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -1.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 27.35 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -1.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |