← Primera Division 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 39% | 55% | 2.50 | value: +36% ⚠ |
| Valencia CF win | 34% | 23% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Daniel Wass · Valencia CF |
| 35' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Guedes · Valencia CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Álvaro Odriozola · Real Madrid CF |
| 65' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Real Madrid CF |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ezequiel Garay · Valencia CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 641.00 | 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1720.99 | 1810.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.86 | 10.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | — |
| league points | 43.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 1.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.54 | 24.11 |
| state index | 0.81 | 1.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |