← Primera Division 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huesca win | 37% | 34% | 2.66 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 35% | 44% | 2.82 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 29% | 22% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Brais Méndez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 18' | 🟨 | Brais Méndez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 25' | 🟨 | Jorge Pulido · Huesca |
| 52' | 🟨 | Lucas Olaza · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 55' | 🟨 | Xabier Etxeita · Huesca |
| 57' | ⚽ | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 63' | ⚽ | Enric Gallego · Huesca |
| 71' | ⚽ | Chimy Ávila · Huesca |
| 73' | ⚽ | Jorge Pulido · Huesca |
| 81' | ⚽ | Ryad Boudebouz · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 88' | 🟨 | Emre Mor · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | El Alcoraz |
| coach days | 184.00 | 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1553.90 | 1608.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.47 | -4.42 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | -1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 22.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.98 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.32 | 25.11 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.51 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |