← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 52% | 46% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 36% | 3.47 | value: +26% |
| Getafe CF win | 20% | 17% | 4.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 26' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Guedes · Valencia CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Leandro Cabrera · Getafe CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mathieu Flamini · Getafe CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | Santi Mina · Valencia CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Francisco Portillo · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| coach days |
| 624.00 |
| 927.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1712.96 | 1674.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.28 | 29.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| league points | 39.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 64.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.74 | — |
| state index | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |