← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 46% | 39% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.43 | value: +13% |
| Girona win | 26% | 28% | 3.80 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Guedes · Valencia CF |
| 20' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 22' | ⚽ | Jonas Ramalho · Girona |
| 53' | ⚽ | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Facundo Roncaglia · Valencia CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Facundo Roncaglia · Valencia CF |
| 72' | 🟥 | Facundo Roncaglia · Valencia CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Mouctar Diakhaby · Valencia CF |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 88' | 🟨 | Pedro Alcala · Girona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| coach days | 282.00 | 617.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.67 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1561.23 | 1707.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.66 | 18.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.80 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.85 |
| league points | 31.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.52 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.84 | 25.74 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |