← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 37% | 35% | 2.62 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.99 | fair |
| Leganes win | 30% | 33% | 3.24 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Vasyl Kravets · Leganes |
| 22' | ⚽ | Geoffrey Kondogbia · Valencia CF |
| 25' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 68' | 🟨 | Neto · Valencia CF |
| 69' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · Leganes |
| 72' | 🟨 | Unai Bustinza · Leganes |
| 84' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
| 89' | ⚽ | Martin Braithwaite · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Youssef En-Nesyri · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kévin Gameiro · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days | 268.00 | 603.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1633.58 | 1777.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.51 | 28.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.70 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.79 |
| league points | 29.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.61 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.38 | 24.93 |
| state index | 0.33 | 1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.26 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |