← Primera Division 2018-19 · Mon, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 43% | 41% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.21 | fair |
| Huesca win | 26% | 30% | 3.68 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 32' | 🟨 | Ander Capa · Athletic Club |
| 38' | 🟨 | Yangel Herrera · Huesca |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jorge Miramón · Huesca |
| 42' | 🟨 | Enric Gallego · Huesca |
| 68' | 🟨 | Adrián Diéguez · Huesca |
| 73' | 🟨 | Moi Gómez · Huesca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.59 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | El Alcoraz |
| coach days | 140.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1563.26 | 1661.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.30 | 31.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.69 |
| league points | 18.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.29 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.22 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |