← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 67% | 65% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.30 | fair |
| Huesca win | 11% | 12% | 9.15 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 31' | 🟨 | Santi Mina · Valencia CF |
| 34' | 🟨 | Denis Cheryshev · Valencia CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Garay · Valencia CF |
| 54' | 🟨 | Pablo Insua · Huesca |
| 63' | 🟨 | Rodrigo · Valencia CF |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Cucho Hernández · Huesca |
| 82' | 🟨 | Samuele Longo · Huesca |
| 84' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Cristian Rivera · Huesca |
| 87' | 🟨 | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cristiano Piccini · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Xabier Etxeita · Huesca |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cristiano Piccini · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Huesca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| coach days | 540.00 | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.58 | 3.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1649.56 | 1489.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.07 | -16.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.57 |
| league points | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.20 | — |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |