← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 42% | 35% | 2.32 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
| Huesca win | 28% | 34% | 3.43 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · Huesca |
| 42' | 🟨 | Manu Trigueros · Villarreal CF |
| 43' | 🟨 | Mario Gaspar · Villarreal CF |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Cucho Hernández · Huesca |
| 53' | 🟨 | Pablo Insua · Huesca |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 65' | 🟨 | Mario Gaspar · Villarreal CF |
| 65' | 🟥 | Mario Gaspar · Villarreal CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jorge Pulido · Huesca |
| 81' | ⚽ | Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Samuele Longo · Huesca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Santiago Cáseres · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Samuele Longo · Huesca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 30 | Shots | 10 |
| 13 | On target | 5 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | El Alcoraz |
| coach days | 76.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1488.00 | 1616.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.94 | 4.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.72 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.70 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| league points | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.47 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.70 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.16 |
| state index | -0.86 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |