← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huesca win | 42% | 51% | 2.31 | value: +18% |
| Levante UD win | 29% | 22% | 3.36 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Nikola Vukčević · Levante UD |
| 12' | 🟨 | Jorge Pulido · Huesca |
| 23' | ⚽ | Cristian Rivera · Huesca |
| 45' | ⚽ | Roger Martí · Levante UD |
| 51' | ⚽ | Xabier Etxeita · Huesca |
| 67' | 🟨 | Sanjin Prcić · Levante UD |
| 74' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Boateng · Levante UD |
| 75' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Jovanović · Huesca |
| 76' | 🟨 | Xabier Etxeita · Huesca |
| 81' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · Huesca |
| 81' | 🟨 | Toño · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · Huesca |
| 90' | 🟥 | Chimy Ávila · Huesca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 32 | Shots | 5 |
| 12 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | El Alcoraz |
| coach days | 54.00 | 268.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1500.99 | 1575.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.25 | 24.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.72 |
| league points | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.89 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |