← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huesca win | 37% | 41% | 2.61 | value: +7% |
| Girona win | 33% | 32% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · Huesca |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 39' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Damian Musto · Huesca |
| 70' | 🟨 | Bernardo Espinosa · Girona |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Gonzalo Melero · Huesca |
| 87' | 🟨 | David Ferreiro · Huesca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | El Alcoraz |
| coach days | 119.00 | 121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1530.41 | 1549.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.29 | 15.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.71 |
| league points | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 33.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.57 |
| state index | -0.88 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -1.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |