← Primera Division 2018-19 · Fri, Sep 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huesca win | 40% | 45% | 2.43 | value: +10% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 31% | 28% | 3.13 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Giannelli Imbula · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jordi Amat · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 79' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · Huesca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luisinho · Huesca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | El Alcoraz |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 103.00 | 590.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1566.13 | 1545.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.37 | -53.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.42 | 26.20 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |