← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 76% | 72% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 18% | 6.44 | value: +19% |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 9% | 9% | 10.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Simone Zaza · Valencia CF |
| 77' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Guedes · Valencia CF |
| 80' | ⚽ | Lucas Pérez · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | RC Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 323.00 | 108.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1661.47 | 1434.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.33 | -1.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.70 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.46 |
| league points | 70.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 22.96 | — |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |