← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 46% | 34% | 2.13 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 28% | 39% | 3.50 | value: +35% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Girona |
| 60' | 🟨 | Simone Zaza · Valencia CF |
| 61' | ⚽ | Luciano Vietto · Valencia CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Toni Lato · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Timor · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| coach days |
| 1606.00 |
| 315.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1536.54 | 1653.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.40 | -32.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.84 |
| league points | 48.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.32 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |