← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 39% | 47% | 2.49 | value: +18% |
| Valencia CF win | 33% | 23% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Antonio Rukavina · Villarreal CF |
| 21' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Guedes · Valencia CF |
| 29' | 🟨 | Denis Cheryshev · Villarreal CF |
| 34' | 🟨 | Rodri · Villarreal CF |
| 43' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 60' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Víctor Ruiz · Villarreal CF |
| 86' | ⚽ | Mario Gaspar · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergio Asenjo · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days |
| 246.00 |
| 308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1618.03 | 1662.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.53 | -18.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| league points | 54.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.59 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |