← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 63% | 65% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.05 | fair |
| Eibar win | 13% | 15% | 7.70 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | José Ángel · Eibar |
| 44' | 🟨 | Geoffrey Kondogbia · Valencia CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Joan Jordán · Eibar |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kike García · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| coach days | 302.00 | 1033.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1667.51 | 1542.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.15 | -26.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.67 |
| league points | 66.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 24.18 | — |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |