← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 45% | 44% | 2.18 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| Leganes win | 26% | 28% | 3.78 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
| 33' | 🟨 | Geoffrey Kondogbia · Valencia CF |
| 57' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Leganes |
| 62' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Valencia CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jaume Doménech · Valencia CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Claudio Beauvue · Leganes |
| 89' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 3 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days |
| 1765.00 |
| 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1506.14 | 1673.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.29 | 39.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| league points | 36.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.52 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |