← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 66% | 61% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.51 | value: +7% |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 13% | 15% | 7.74 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Valencia CF |
| 33' | ⚽ | Simone Zaza · Valencia CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Geoffrey Kondogbia · Valencia CF |
| 49' | ⚽ | Rubén Sobrino · Deportivo Alavés |
| 54' | ⚽ (og) | Víctor Laguardia · Valencia CF |
| 56' | 🟨 | Tomás Pina · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 16 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 259.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1666.71 | 1518.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.30 | -17.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 69.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 56.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.77 | — |
| state index | 0.89 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |